Grey Swan Capital
Grey Swan Events Are 80%–100% Likely
Grey Swan Capital tracks, records, investigates, and researches grey swan events — events that are 80% likely to 100% inevitable — for the benefit of humanity.
Announcement
New: CLAAS — Customer Loyalty as a Service
Any merchant, anywhere, can now run a customer loyalty program with Grey Swan for free. Offer one free item to our members, and we send you loyal customers who are supporting causes they care about. No fees. Cancel anytime.
Become a Founding Member
We're the master chefs of technology. We don't compete with AI, we cook with it, adding new ingredients to the pantry, with Steve and Grok working as a team. Try the Follow Me option free for one month and kick the tires. When you join, half of your membership goes right away to the cause you choose. Our default is Conway's Human Development Center, home to Steve's son Gentry.
What's a Grey Swan?
A grey swan is 80% likely to 100% inevitable. These events happen all the time — they are not rare. Death is likely and taxes are likely; neither is rare. We're not inventing the dictionary, we're creating the definition. You can copy us, but we're first.
An event 80–100% likely — happening all the time, not rare.
Not a Black Swan. A Grey Swan.
Black Swans are unpredictable. Grey Swans are the opposite — they are 80% likely to 100% inevitable, and they happen all the time. They are not rare. A lot of people do plan for grey swans, many don’t, and some aren’t obvious enough that people even know to look.
Some, such as AI remaining here to stay and nuclear or power shortages, are known and sometimes planned around, though people could be better prepared. Others are less clearly understood and can have equal or greater impact on business, community, and family.
We track the events that are already in motion — in energy, technology, money, and faith — and research them for the benefit of humanity.
Our Focus
Four Pillars. One Framework.
God
The collapse of institutional religion and the simultaneous rise of personal faith. Spiritual hunger is accelerating — and capital is beginning to follow.
- Decline of mainline denominations
- Rise of decentralized faith communities
- Faith-based capital allocation
Energy
The energy transition is real — but so is the gap between political narrative and physical reality. Grid fragility, resource scarcity, and demand explosions are converging.
- AI data center power demand
- Grid reliability and baseload gaps
- Critical mineral supply chains
Technology
AI is not a future event — it's already displacing industries, reshaping labor, and concentrating power. The question is who is positioned for it.
- AI-driven labor displacement
- Surveillance and privacy erosion
- Decentralized technology alternatives
Money
Fiat currency debasement, sovereign debt spirals, and the rise of alternative monetary systems are not hypothetical. They are already underway.
- Dollar reserve status erosion
- Bitcoin and sound money alternatives
- Sovereign debt and pension crises
What We're Watching
Six high-probability events currently in motion — some known and sometimes planned around, though people could be better prepared; others less clearly understood.
AI Power Demand Shock
Data centers are projected to consume 10–15% of US electricity by 2030. The grid is not ready.
Dollar Debasement Acceleration
Federal debt now exceeds $34 trillion. The debasement math is not a prediction — it’s arithmetic.
Institutional Trust Collapse
Trust in media, government, and financial institutions is at historic lows and still falling.
Energy Grid Fragility
Baseload retirements are outpacing new reliable generation. Blackout risk is rising across the US.
Faith Community Realignment
Millions are leaving institutional religion while simultaneously deepening personal faith practice.
Labor Market Displacement
AI is not coming for jobs — it is already eliminating entire job categories in real time.
Watch and Listen
Explainer videos are ready to watch. Articles and The Hornet’s Nest live on Substack — this site is the front door. Episodes will appear on Substack when they go live. Until then, read Saturday’s launch article, “I’m Starting a Podcast to Kick the Hornet’s Nest. Here’s What We’ll Take On.”
Membership
Two tiers. One mission.
Founding Member
Full access + Nostr Fundraising
Complete access to all research, briefings, and the member dashboard. Half of every membership goes to the cause you choose. No price increases, ever.
Monthly
Full membership
Full access to all Grey Swan Capital research. Cancel anytime.
Annual
Full membership
Full access at a better rate. Half of your membership goes to a cause you choose.
Half of every paid membership goes immediately to the cause you choose — it is not held until year end. If you don’t pick one, it goes to the Conway HDC, where my son Gentry lives.
Research & Intelligence Stay Ahead of What’s 80% Likely to 100% Inevitable
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